Source: adapted from D. Jacoby (2008) "How should the global financial crisis affect your freight strategy?", Logistics Digest, December.
- Consumption. The level of impact on consumption is related to the value of goods. Basic goods (e.g. food) and luxury goods tend to be the most resilient, so their respective supply chains are impacted marginally by recessions. However, it is for durable goods (e.g. cars), discretionary goods (e.g. electronics) and capital equipment (e.g. ships and port infrastructure), that recessionary forces can have significant impacts in lowering their respective demand depending on the severity of the recession.
- Trade and production. Stock market valuations and freight rates (futures indexes) tend to be leading indicators in the sequence, followed by production, income, spending and container volumes.