Source: adapted from WTO, World Trade Report. Share of merchandise exports. Note: Prior to 1955, fuels and mining products were classified as natural resources.
Share of Product Groups in World Merchandise Trade, 1900-2015
Prior to the Second World War, international trade was dominated by agricultural goods to a large extent and by natural resources (mining products and fuels) to a lesser. Manufactured goods accounted for about 40% of global merchandise exports while agricultural goods were accounting for about 60%. National markets tended to impose restrictions for the imports of manufactured goods. Commodities, particularly those that were not readily produced nationally, such as oil or grains, were less restricted. After the Second World War, manufactured products started to take a growing share of the value of international trade. While they accounted for 44.7% of all exports in 1955, this share climbed to 74.8% in 2000, with shares above 70% common throughout the 1990s. Technological innovations in the transport sector, namely containerization, have enabled a fast and efficient handling of manufactured goods, thus lowering transportation costs.
The globalization of production has also increased the trade of manufactured goods with outsourcing and offshoring. It is relatively common for a part to be traded several times if it is used for the assembly of a more complex product such as a car. The share of mineral and agricultural products in the global trade is likely to remain similar or even increase slightly as commodity prices increase. In a world where some resources may be scarcer, a distinct possibility exists that the share of agricultural and mineral products would reclaim their former share of global trade, which used to be in the range of 40 to 50%. Further, the automation and robotization of several segments of manufacturing is likely to have an impact on the composition of global trade since it becomes possible to locate closer (or next to) markets.