Transportation and Disasters

Author: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

1. Transportation and National Security

Transportation systems are designed to operate under normal conditions. Yet, disruptions such as those caused by an accident or by a storm are rather common and well mitigated. On occasion, a disruption at a much high scale takes place to the extent that the security of a whole region or nation is compromised.

A disaster involves extensive damage to people and physical infrastructure that is unforeseen in nature, scale and extent. It often implies that their risk of occurrence has not been properly assessed and a large share of the damage is the outcome of a lack of preparedness.

From an economic standpoint, the impacts of disasters are dependent on three factors; 1) the nature and level of incidence of disasters; 2) the level of exposure of populations and infrastructures and; 3) the level of vulnerability of populations and infrastructures. There are several drivers that have an impact of the threats and risk level of disasters on transportation systems:

Increased mobility. The mobility of passengers (for commuting, tourism, business and migration) and freight has increased notably around the world, including the crossing international boundaries. Air and maritime transportation are particularly illustrative. This trend has also been strengthened by trade agreements and reductions in tariffs promoted by organizations such as the World Trade Organization. There are more economic opportunities, but some risks, such as infectious diseases, can spread faster and more extensively.
Infrastructure and economic interdependency. Infrastructures are increasingly interdependent, particularly transportation and energy infrastructures, so a disruption in one will have an effect on others. This interdependency is also economic as global or regional trade is based upon mutual specialization. Some parts and components are provided by a limited number of suppliers, which can be prone to risks in case of disruptions. The same applies to resources such as oil that require a continuous supply with limited margins to accommodate disruptions.
Centralization and concentration of distribution. The principle of economies of scale often leads to a centralization of network structures and a concentration of economic activities. Most transportation systems are organized in hub-and-spoke networks, particularly for air transportation, but this characteristic is also prevalent in maritime shipping. Global trade is articulated by major gateways where a few control a large share of the commercial flows. At the more basic geographical level strategic passages impose bottlenecks for global maritime freight circulation.
Urbanization. The emergence of large cities has led to acute concentrations of populations, a pattern significantly different than the more dispersed settlements that prevailed in rural societies. Concentration of population equates with a concentration of risk. Thus, any disaster affecting an urban area is compounding its impacts on par with the population and infrastructure density. It is also worth underlining that many of the world's largest cities are located in coastal areas, exposing them to an additional array of risks linked with hurricanes and storm surges.

The transport industry has responded to these drivers with massive investments in infrastructure and facilities that have expanded the capacity and efficiency of transportation systems, both at the domestic and international levels. Added flows and capacities have in turn created increased demands on the management of physical distribution systems, which includes activities such as transportation, transshipment, warehousing, insurance and retailing. These are all of strategic importance to national economies. With the increasing reliance on distribution systems, any failure of transportation, due to intentional or non-intentional causes, can have very disruptive consequences and can compromise national security over four major issues:

Transportation supply. Ensuring that transportation modes, routes, terminals and information systems are able to satisfy national security needs such as troop deployment and emergency relief.
Transportation readiness. Maintaining the readiness of transportation to face time-sensitive national security needs.
Transportation vulnerability. Reducing the vulnerability of the transportation modes, terminals and users to intentional harm or disruption from natural events.
Illegal use of transportation. Reducing the trade of restricted or illegal goods (e.g. drugs, endangered species), and illegal immigration.

2. Potential Threats and Risks

The disruptions caused by disasters take place over complex transportation systems and are consequently difficult to evaluate. Particularly, the non-linearity character of complex systems implies that a disruption can have multiplying and feedback effects, many unforeseen. A disaster of high severity is likely to trigger a phase transition where the resulting transport conditions are very different to those ex-ante. A simple taxonomy of disasters reveals that they are natural or man-made in origin. Natural disasters come into four main categories:

Extreme weather events. Many climate events such as storms and blizzards occur regularly and tend to have minimal impacts on transport systems with delays, partial closures or diversions. Others, such as floods, cyclones (hurricanes), tornadoes and droughts can be of disastrous proportions. Tropical cyclones (hurricanes) are particularly harmful since they cover wide areas (a mid-sized cyclone can cover an area of 500 km in diameter), are moving slowly (25 km/hr) and are associated with high winds and rainfalls. Regional air transport and public transit systems are usually shut down and land transportation can be seriously impaired. For instance, Hurricane Sandy, which struck the New York / New Jersey coasts in 2012, incited the preemptive shut down of all the airports and public transit systems of the region. Due to flooding and power outages, it took several days for the system to be brought back to normal operating conditions, which had substantial impacts on commuting. There are concerns that climate change may be linked with more recurrent extreme weather events. Beyond this debate the fact remains that extreme weather events will continue to occur, but their frequency and scale is uncertain.
Geophysical: Tectonic activity is the source of the most serious disasters. Earthquakes are salient forms of geophysical threats since they are difficult to predict. Tsunamis are also considered an emerging risk as a growing number of people live along coastal areas. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan is among the five largest in recorder history. While the damage by the earthquake was significant, it is the associated tsunamis that caused the most extensive damage to Japanese transport infrastructure. Although areas of high earthquake occurrence are readily identified, the specific location and scale of an event remains a probability that is often difficult to conceptualize in the planning of transport infrastructure. While volcanoes have always been localized and easily identifiable risks, the ash clouds they release have recently be source of concern. For instance, the ash cloud released by the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland forced the shutdown of most of the European and transatlantic air transport system for close to a week, stranding millions of passengers. Since in geological times air transportation is an extremely recent phenomenon, the probability and extent of ash cloud events remains uncertain. For instance, an event of the scale of the Krakatau 1883 eruption taking place today would be of profound ramifications for the global maritime and air transport systems.
Geomagnetic storms. They concern disturbances in the earth's magnetic structure, mostly the outcome of solar activity where the frequency of geomagnetic storms varies accordingly. Geomagnetic storms can impair power grids and have a higher probability of taking place around the north and south poles. Still, they are a less known and often underestimated risk. The largest geomagnetic storm in history took place in 1859, but since back then electrical systems were rudimentary, its impacts on human activities were marginal. Such an event taking place today would be heavy in consequences (e.g. hundreds of millions losing electric power) and would qualify as a disaster.
Sea level rise. Potential rises in sea levels attributed to anthropogenic causes (global warming) qualify as a natural disaster. There is a variety of scenarios about potential sea level rises, but evidence underlines a rise by one meter by 2100 (compared with a 2000 baseline) as almost a certainty. If the sea level rise accelerates, the one meter scenario could even be reached by 2050. Irrespective of the timing, sea level rise places critical transport infrastructure such as ports and airports at risk of damage and discontinuity in operations. For instance, a port terminal or an airport could not be directly impaired by sea level rise, but its access roads could be, compromising its commercial viability. Sea level rise would also amplify the impacts of extreme weather events, namely storm surges.

The second class of disasters concern those that are man-made and they can be intentional or unintentional:

Accidents. The outcome of technical failures or human errors and where modes, infrastructure or terminals can be damaged, even destroyed, which includes injuries and the loss of life. Small scale accidents occur very frequently, particularly over road transportation. However, transportation-related accidents are rarely considered as disasters because they are very punctual events not related to a massive loss of life and damage. The exception is an aircraft crash with a complete loss of life. With improved airline safety these events are however increasingly uncommon, particularly in relation to the growing amount of passenger-km flown each year around the world.
Conflicts, terrorism and piracy. Conflicts such as wars and civil unrest often result in the damaging of infrastructure with transportation commonly a voluntary or involuntary target. Due to the importance of global trade and the structure of maritime shipping networks, bottlenecks (strategic passages) are subject to risk of partial or complete closure. Terrorism has been a disruptive issue that came at the forefront in the last two decades. For instance, the disruptions caused by the September 11 2001 events can clearly be considered a disaster because of their scale and scope, such as the closing of the North American air transport system. The surge in global trade in the second half of the 20th century created an environment where piracy is on the rise. Shipping lines are forced to pass through constrained areas, chokepoints, namely straits such as Malacca and Bab el Mandab along the heavily used Asia-Europe maritime routes, which make the interception of ships more feasible within a delimited area. The outcome of piracy on global supply chains has been small but not negligible as ships have changed their routing and that insurance surcharges are being levied for cargo transiting through areas prone to piracy.
Economic and political shocks. They are likely to play a growing role in the future, particularly financial issues as most developed nations have accumulated a staggering amount of debt that is likely to be defaulted on. Such an event would be associated with a lack of capital available for infrastructure construction, maintenance and oversight, rendering elements of the transport system more prone to risks, such as accidents.
Pandemics. At the intersection of natural (biological) and man-made causes (people are vectors and a virus could be mutated by anthropogenic causes), a pandemic is an event of potential profound ramifications. Yet, the risk of the event itself is extremely difficult to assess. Although a pandemic would not directly damage transportation systems, transportation is intractably linked with such a disaster as it will act as a vector for its diffusion (particularly air transportation) and a shutting down of transportation services in the wake of a pandemic would compromise supply chains (food, energy, medical supplies).

As the freight transportation dimension is getting increasingly globalized and complex, supply chain risks are salient. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to an array of disasters because infrastructure, including transportation, tends to be of lower quality and thus less resilient to disruptions. A fundamental element in addition to the risk is who bears the responsibility for it. International commercial transactions underline that the actor assuming the liability depends on the type of terms. Therefore, depending on the terms of the contract the same event may imply a different allocation of the liability.

3. Transportation Disaster Planning

Although a potential disaster can never be effectively planned, and even anticipated in some instances, there are a series of steps, known as Disasters Risk Management, which could reduce disruptions:

Risk Assessment. The likelihood of an event and its potential impacts should be comprehensively assessed, such a low to high probability over a defined time frame and over a specific area (e.g. a city). This should provide a prioritization of risks, but it remains a very uncertain process.
Preparedness. In light of the potential risks a level of preparedness should be considered in terms of potential responses. This can involve the warehousing and positioning of relief material, such as fuel, parts and equipment, and the training of the labor force in emergency situations.
Mitigation. Concerns the immediate reaction to the event and can involve the shutting down of transport systems (particularly public transit), the evacuation of populations and the mobilization of first response resources, namely distributing emergency relief (food, medical supplies). The goal is to control and attenuate the disruptions caused by the disaster.
Response. Once the disaster has been mitigated, steps are implemented to bring back capacity with existing infrastructure. If a mode has been impaired, the usage of alternative modes and infrastructure has to be considered. The goal is to maintain operational as many elements of the transport system as possible.
Recovery. Concerns all the steps necessary to recover the transport capacity that was lost during the disaster. It can involve repairs, the restarting services that were discontinued as well as investments in new and improved infrastructures, modes and terminals. The goal is to bring back the capacity and level of service to pre-disaster conditions. With the lessons learned from the disaster, more resilient infrastructure and networks are a likely outcome.

The reconstruction time of transportation infrastructure tends to be slower than other infrastructure. Evidence from the 1995 Kobe earthquake underlines that electric power and telecommunications are first restored in a matter of weeks. Road and rail infrastructure can take several months while for port infrastructure it can be a matter of years. Transport infrastructure, particularly terminals, are much more capital intensive than utilities and require specialized and heavy equipment for their repair or construction. Highway and rail services can run at lower capacity and on alternative routes. If a port is shut down, other ports can generally be used (the same applies for air travel). While this is less efficient as it involves longer routes for imports or exports, it remains in most case economically feasible.

4. Transportation Disaster Mitigation

Logistics is playing an important role in these steps, notably over their organization and management. The following strategies can help mitigate unforeseen disruptions, particularly for air transportation:

Monitoring and assessment. In any unusual emergency situation information is crucial. Those involved can come up with their own solutions or alternatives, such as postponement, modal shift or simply forfeiting a trip if it is discretionary. If properly informed, consumers and supply chain managers tend to act rationally, which may lessen additional disruptions. Depending on the risk factors involved, it remains fundamental to monitor the situation and assess which parts of the system can be brought partially or completely online as soon as possible. This, combined with accurate information releases, institutes public confidence that the crisis is well managed, while conveying patience and good will from those impacted. Even the admittance that limited information is available can be useful as it conveys the message that a disaster has complex ramifications.
Help for those impacted. This strategy applies to passengers transportation. For commuting, where possible there should be short term alternatives than having to commute to a location that is now difficult of access. This can involve telecommuting strategies, the delay of non-essential work tasks or the setting of alternative work locations. For long distance movements, particularly for intercontinental flights, there will be stranded passengers that will have no alternatives, at least on the short term, to head back home. Many may be facing financial difficulties as their travel was budgeted, accommodations paid in advance, and thus have limited means to cope with the additional costs involved. An alternative lodging market should be made available so that those with stretched means can opt for simpler accommodations, down to a cot provided for free in an airport terminal corridor.
Removal of discretionary demand. Disruptions, complete or partial, always result in much more transport demand than supply. This should imply a sharp rise of fares, leaving those willing to pay such a high price able to travel, or having only the most critical freight being carried. However, since airfares or containership slots are booked in advance at a locked price, discretionary travel may remain even when the system is disrupted, particularly when the disruption is over but the demand is still facing serious backlogs. Incentives should be provided to remove as much discretionary demand out of the system as possible while the disruption and its consequences last. An effective strategy concerns the creation of a seat swapping market, particularly with the help of information technologies. For instance, an airline could contact ticket holders for specific flights and ask them if it could purchase their tickets back at a higher price (or in exchange for a voucher for a future comparable trip) and then resell those tickets at a much higher price on the current market. Those willing to travel at the current market price would thus be able to bid for a seat and those traveling for discretionary purposes being compensated for opting out. Airlines would thus be able to recover some of the substantial losses in revenue they incur during such disruptions by maximizing their revenue on existing flights. For humanitarian reasons, such as reuniting families or accommodating persons with medical conditions, seats can also be made available through swapping arrangements between high priority passengers and those being more flexible. A swapping market can also spontaneously emerge through online social networks.
Modal shift. Ideally, movements should shift towards modes that have a higher capacity and resiliency. However, if a public transit system is shut down because of a disaster such as a storm, it can take several days to be brought back online. Meanwhile, those seeking to commute may be forced to use their automobiles where under normal circumstances they would be using public transit. This exacerbates congestion and may lead to fuel shortages. For air transport, since most movements remain regional in scale (city pairs of less than 1,000 km), it can be expected that passengers will switch to alternative modes, which can be ill prepared to deal with the sudden demand surge. The market for alternative modes mostly concern the automobile, rail, buses and even ferries where the situation warrants. Those alternative modes must react quickly by adding as much capacity as possible, which may take place more effectively if those contingencies are planned in advance. There is also the problem of a large convergence of passengers towards terminals (rail and bus stations), creating undue crowding and queuing which could be mitigated by the usage of satellite travel arrangement facilities where passengers could be offered a range of multimodal options that could be booked. Then, a passenger would only need to show up at the terminal before boarding time. There is also a substantial opportunity to remove discretionary travel on alternative modes by creating swapping markets for passengers willing to trade their tickets in exchange of a monetary sum or a voucher valid for future travel. There is therefore an opportunity for the alternative mode to gain market share once the crisis is over.