International Oil Transportation

Home > Contents > Chapter 8 > Application

Author: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

1. Petroleum

Very few commodities have become as vital as petroleum since it can be used as a source of energy as well as a raw material in the manufacturing of plastics and fertilizers. As a commodity of strategic importance, petroleum has for long been the object of geopolitical confrontations. Several contemporary geopolitical events were closely related to oil or had consequences on oil supply and prices. The first event that triggered the geopolitical importance of oil was the decision in 1912 by the British Admiralty to convert warships from coal to oil propulsion because of speed and range advantages. Since Britain had no oil resources, it nationalized the Anglo-Persian Oil Company and committed itself to the protection of this resource in Persia (Iran after 1934).

World War I demonstrated the growing importance of the internal combustion engine (trucks, tanks and planes) on modern military operations. The 1920s were characterized by exploding civilian demand for oil because of motorization as the automobile was becoming a significant mode of transportation. A the same time, the industry quickly became controlled by a few major corporations that became the oil giants of today. The oligopolistic commercial control on the price and the production of oil was first established in 1928 by the Achnacarry Agreements between the "seven sisters", the major oil multinationals of the time.

"Seven Sisters". The seven major oil multinationals which by the early 20th century have achieved dominance over the industry. Five of them were American and the two other were British. The American companies included Exxon (Standard Oil of New Jersey), Mobil (Standard Oil of New York) and Socal (Standard Oil of California which later became Chevron), all of which were the result of the forced breakup of Standard Oil in 1911, and Gulf and Texaco which were created after the discovery of the Spindletop field in Texas in 1901. The British companies were Royal Dutch Shell (a joint venture with the Netherlands) and British Petroleum (BP), whose interest in world oil expanded with the discovery of oil fields in Persia (Iraq) and in the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia). Through mergers and acquisitions the "Seven Sisters" have become four; ExxonMobil, Chevron-Texaco, BP (acquired Amoco and Arco) and Royal Dutch Shell.

These corporations have invested massively in extraction infrastructures, especially in the Middle East and Latin America. They were effectively in control of the world's oil supply and demand with a set of strategies such as fixing quotas, prices and production. However, a nationalization trend started to emerge in many developing countries, sowing the seeds of future oil supply control and shocks. In 1938 Mexico forcefully took control, through expropriation, of its entire oil industry undermining for a while its access to foreign markets but triggering sympathy in many developing countries as a symbol against foreign exploitation of national resources.

World War II revealed to be a conflict strategically dominated by oil as key weapons were armored and air forces. The decision of the United States to establish an oil embargo on Japan in 1941 is one event that triggered the war in the Pacific. Japan's strategic objectives were to secure the resources of Southeast Asia, especially the oil fields of Indonesia, and has planned fast operations to achieve these objectives. The same year, Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union had among its major objectives the securing of the oil fields around Baku in the Caucasus region. Both Germany and Japan failed to establish a secure source of oil, contributing to their defeat in 1945 by strategically more mobile allied forces. Allied nations controlled about 86% of the world's oil supply.

The post World War II era underlined the growing geopolitical importance of the Middle East, as Europe and the United States were importing growing quantities of oil from that region. In 1948 the Ghawar Field was discovered in Saudi Arabia, which accounted for the largest conventional oil field in the world. The supply was shifting rapidly to this region as more oil reserves were discovered. Attempts were made to integrate countries like Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia in alliances with Western powers, but a series of geopolitical events, such as the creation of the OPEC and Islamic nationalisms, would complicate access to oil resources.

2. The Geopolitics of Petroleum

In view of the powerful economic control of oil production by Western multinational corporations (the Seven Sisters), several producing countries, most of them in the Middle East, had a goal to gather a greater share of the oil incomes by controlling supply. Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait founded the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960 at the Baghdad conference. From its foundation until the beginning of 1970s, the OPEC was unable to increase oil prices. The main reasons were that production was very important in non-member countries and because of the difficulty of OPEC members to agree on a common policy since economic theory clearly underlines that cartels are bound to fail at fixing prices. Consequently, developed countries were confident that the price of petroleum would remain relatively stable. The American Government even predicted in the early 1970s that oil prices might rise to about 5 dollars per barrel by 1980. In such an environment of low petroleum prices and strong economic growth, no developed country had an energy policy and energy waste was common. This situation however changed quickly.

In the 1970s, OPEC countries achieved control over more than 55% of the global oil supply and started to fix production quotas based on the oil reserves of each of its members. Each member began a process of nationalization of their oil industry (Libya, 1971; Iraq, 1972; Iran, 1973; Venezuela, 1975). By 1972, 25% of the ownership of oil operations in OPEC countries is nationalized, a figure that climbed to 51% by 1983. Another objective was to establish co-operation between producers in order to avoid competition that would bring the down the prices. This cartelistic objective was feasible in the context of a growing market demand and the dependency on only a few oil suppliers, but very difficult to maintain in a competitive environment. However, the initial trigger of the surge in oil prices in the 1970s was a monetary event. In 1971 the United States decided to "close the gold window" essentially removing the convertibility of the US dollar in gold. The dollar thus because entirely a fiat currency only backed up by the confidence in the American economy. Strong inflationary pressures thus began, as this event essentially became a "license to print", which quickly percolated into commodity prices, including oil. Between 1970 and 1973, oil prices jumped from $1.80 to $3.29 per barrel as OPEC countries adjusted their price to reflect the American inflationary monetary policy.

The Kippur War between Israel and Egypt (and several other Arabian countries) in 1973 gave OPEC additional reasons to intervene by nationalizing production facilities, reducing production by 25% and imposing export quotas. The goal was to undermine Israel's support, mainly by the United States. Oil became a geopolitical weapon. On October 19 1973, OPEC declared an oil embargo against the United States, which lasted until June 1974. The price of oil consequently climbed to $12 per barrel by the end of 1973, a fourfold increase. In a context of high oil demand, of limited additional capacity in developed countries and of no readily energetic substitutes, OPEC gained the temporary ability to control the price of oil. The market became controlled by supply (oil producers) causing the first oil shock.

Under the control of the OPEC, the price of oil remained high but stable from 1974 to 1978, around $12 per barrel. Developed countries started to worry about the exhaustion of oil reserves and unreliable supply sources but not much was done on this regard. The Iranian revolution of 1979 and the ensuing Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) caused the second oil shock where the price of oil surged over $35 per barrel, imposing several drastic, but somewhat temporary, measures to lower oil consumption. This resulted in a relocation of energy-consuming industries, in strategies for consuming less energy (such as energy efficient cars and appliances), in relying more on national energy sources (petroleum, coal, natural gas, hydroelectricity, nuclear energy), in building strategic reserves, and in substituting petroleum for other energy sources when possible. It is estimated that about 2 billion barrels are held in strategic reserves around the world, the bulk of it in the United States, Japan and Germany. The Carter Doctrine (1980), stating that the United States would intervene militarily if its oil supply was compromised, is also the outcome of the uncertainties derived from the first and second oil shocks. The military presence of the United States in the Middle East was increased, as the oil of the Persian Gulf was clearly perceived as of foremost importance to national security.

At the end of the 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s, OPEC countries lost their price-fixing power because of internal problems (economic and geopolitical conflicts between its members) and especially with the arrival of new producers such as Russia, Mexico, Norway, the United Kingdom and Colombia. These new producers were not submitted to OPEC policies and were free to fix their own prices. Mexico, for instance, surpassed Saudi Arabia in 1997 to become the second largest oil exporter to the United States. Latin American countries such as Columbia and Brazil are trying to boost their oil production. Vietnam is exploring offshore fields, as are other Southeast Asian countries, hopeful that there are major reserves under the South China Sea.

From 1982, divergences occurred within OPEC members to fix quotas and prices as competition increased. Furthermore, the share of OPEC dropped from 55% of all the petroleum exported in the 1970s to 42% in 2000, with an all-time low of 30% in 1985. That year, Saudi Arabia lowered its oil price to increase its market share while OPEC members were competing with each other to be allotted larger quotas. A decision was made to allocate quotas in proportion to proven oil reserves, which lead to an array of "creative accounting" practices in the estimation of reserves. Thus, reserves were indexed to fit production needs, leaving doubts about their true extent. For instance, Kuwait's reserves surged from 64 to 92 billion barrels in just one year and without any new discoveries. The reserves of the United Arab Emirates were boosted from 31 to 92 billion barrels. Iran announced that its real reserves were 93 billion barrels, up from 47 billion barrels. The most significant "increase" in oil reserves in 1985 came from Iraq when its reserves went to 100 billion barrels, up from previous figures of 47 billion barrels. Those inflated and possibly non-existent reserve figures remain today. The result of this inflation of reserves and the larger export quotas they permitted was an oil counter-shock that lowered the barrel price under 20 dollars, even reaching a record low of 15 dollars in 1988. The oil market was again a market controlled by the demand.

Abiding to production quotas became a major issue among OPEC members with countries such as Kuwait producing well above quota. This transgression was a motivation, among others, for the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990, triggering the First Gulf War (1990-1991). The market reacted to these uncertainties and the price of petroleum jumped to $23 per barrel. The United States applied the Carter Doctrine an intervened with a massive military operation, which ousted Iraqi forces of Kuwait. Then an oil embargo on Iraq was established by the United Nations. However, other petroleum-exporting countries were quick to expand their production to replace Iraq's and Kuwait's shortfalls and the price of oil fell to $15 per barrel by the end of the 1990s. Henceforth, OPEC countries only control about 40% of the global oil production. In the current setting OPEC can be considered as a dysfunctional cartel likely bound to failure and be dismantled. Formal price fixing mechanisms, both on the supply and demand sides, commonly fail as there are too many incentives not to abide, particularly if oil prices are high.

The beginning of the 21st century saw increased insecurities in oil supply, political pressures, monetary debasement and military interventions; a third oil shock has unfolded between 2003 and 2008. The Second Gulf War (2003), under the pretense of fighting terrorism and securing weapons of mass destruction (which turned out to be non-existent), saw the American occupation of Iraq. The outcome was a greater control of long term petroleum supply sources but with increasing political instabilities in the Middle East. Oil output from Iraq, which account for the fourth largest reserves on the world, has remained problematic. Additionally, instability in Venezuela (corruption and nationalization) and Nigeria (civil unrest), have stretched the world’s extra capacity thin. Increased demands, mainly from China which has become the world second largest importer, are also stretching global oil supplies. There are numerous challenges facing the global oil industry in terms of additional capacity, refining capacity and its distribution through a system of pipelines and tankers. The systematic debasement of the US dollar by the Federal Reserve is also contributing to higher oil prices through inflationary policies also followed by the European Central Bank. Attempts at mitigating the consequences of an asset inflation phase triggered by accommodating credit creation policies have spilled over the commodity and energy sectors. Unlike the first two oil shocks, the third oil shock was related to unhealthy mix of strained supplies, geopolitical risk and monetary debasement.

3. Petroleum Supply and Demand

The oil industry is oligopolistic both in its supply, demand, control and in its functional and geographical concentration. The demand is controlled by a few very large multinational conglomerates, each having a production and distribution system composed of refineries, storage facilities, distribution centers and at the end of the supply chain, gas stations. The supply is controlled by a few countries where the oil industry is often nationalized or by the OPEC umbrella, which regulates about 37% of the global oil production.

Since the first commercial exploitations in Pennsylvania in 1859, the importance of oil increased significantly in the global economy. In 1920, 95 million tons of oil were produced annually around the world. This number reached 500 million tons by 1950, a billion tons in 1960, and an average annual production around 3 billion tons in the 1990s. This strong growth rests for a very large part on the availability of oil resources and their low cost. Like many other resources, petroleum reserves is subject to variations that are related to new discoveries and what can be economically extracted. Continuous technological innovations in surveying and extraction enabled to discover and economically exploit oil resources in previously inaccessible locations. This notably involves artic and sub artic environmental conditions (e.g. Alaska and Siberia) or offshore locations (e.g. North Sea). The relationships between oil supply and demand are characterized by:

Reserves. Oil reserves have a high level of concentration, with 64% of proved reserves located in the Middle East. The question remains about how much reserves of oil are available and how much time they would last. Figures about the totality of earth's oil reserves were between 2,100 and 2,800 billion barrels before oil began to be exploited in the 19th century. As of 2001, an estimated 1,020 billion barrels of proved oil reserves were available and 900 billion barrels have been extracted, which represents about a third of all available oil reserves. To this figure, can be added between 200 to 900 billion barrels of oil that potentially remain to be found. Considering these figures, the global oil production should peak around 2005-2010 and then start to decline. This trend is being confirmed by the output of the world's largest oil fields, all which is either in decline or possibly declining, in addition to an ongoing decline in several oil producing regions in the West. On a long-term perspective, the control of OPEC will emerge again since the bulk of oil reserves is located within its jurisdiction. Saudi Arabia alone has about 25% of all the world's oil reserves, putting upward pressures on energy prices. There is however a potential in tapping tar sands (particularly in Canada) to produce oil, but this process is energy intensive and leads to low quality fuels.
Supply. Oil production has steadily increased in the second half of the 20th century to satisfy a growing demand. On average 81.6 million barrels of crude oil are produced each day (2006 figures), 32% of it in the Middle East, the single most important oil producing region in the world. About 60% of all the oil being produced is already committed and 40% is sold on open markets. More significantly, excess oil production is limited both in capacity and in its geographical origin. 90% of this excess oil production is located in the Persian Gulf with Saudi Arabia, along with accounting for the world's largest oil reserves, being the only major supplier able to provide instant additional capacity if required. Excess production capacity is of high relevance as if a major disruption in other suppliers occurs, the additional capacity can immediately be brought up to maintain the current oil supply level without significant price disruptions. Recent events, namely the conflict in Iraq, nationalization in Venezuela and civil unrest in Nigeria, have increased uncertainty for oil supplies.
Demand. An average of 83.7 million barrels of petroleum per day were consumed (2006 figures), compared with 31.2 million barrels in 1965. Economic systems, which include industry, housing, energy generation and transportation, became dependent on cheap oil prices, with the United States being the most eloquent example. While the United States ranks as the leading global consumer of oil (20.1 Mb/d), the rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the last decade has propelled China to the second rank of oil consumers (5.5 Mb/d), surpassing Japan (5.3 Mb/d). China accounted for around 40% of the global growth in oil demand in the recent years. Since 52% of all oil is consumed by transportation activities, motorization is one of the driving forces behind the consumption of petroleum. Demand is also characterized by a level of seasonality with heating oil demands in the winter and more gasoline demands in the summer.

There are also concerns that at the same time that global oil production could be leveling off and eventually decline that exports could drop at an higher rate because of growing consumption in oil producing countries. Thus, potentially dwindling supply and growing demand could create multiplying effects. This trend applies well to the United States, China or Indonesia, which from being net exporters of oil have become net importers. For many other cases oil consumption has not changed significantly over time.

An overview of the geography of oil production and consumption thus underlines a strong spatial differentiation between the supply and the demand. Because of geographical and geological factors, where oil is mainly produced is different from where oil is mainly consumed resulting in acute imbalances which are growing rapidly. This can only be overcome by massive oil transportation infrastructures, including pipelines, tankers and storage facilities.

4. Petroleum Transportation

The barrel is the standard unit of measure for oil production and transportation even if it no longer has much reference in reality (steel drums are sometimes used). Its usage has an unusual origin. In the 1860s oil riggers were at a loss about where to store the oil suddenly gushing out of new rigs. Empty whiskey barrels were used as a palliative and a convenient mean to store and move oil for the emerging industry. Barrels have always been a convenient mode in a pre-motorized era since they could handled by hand by rolling them. By 1866, a standard barrel size of 42 US gallons (158.98 liters) was agreed upon. Since then, the volume of international trade in oil increased as a result of world economic growth. The largest oil consumers are the most heavily industrialized countries such as the United States Western Europe and Japan. OECD countries account for about 75% of global crude oil imports. Since oil consumption and production do not happen in the same places, international oil trade is a necessity to compensate the imbalances between supply and demand. Unlike most other countries, a major portion of OPEC’s oil is traded in international markets.

Since the first oil tanker began shipping oil in 1878 in the Caspian Sea, the capacity of the world's maritime tanker fleet has grown substantially. As of 2005, about 2.4 billion tons of petroleum were shipped by maritime transportation, which is roughly 62% of all the petroleum produced. The remaining 38% is either using pipelines (dominantly), trains or trucks. Crude oil alone accounted for 1.86 billion tons. The dominant modes of petroleum transportation are complimentary, notably when the origins or destinations are landlocked or when the distance can be reduced by the use of land routes. The maritime circulation of petroleum follows a set of maritime routes between regions where it is been extracted and regions where it is been refined and consumed. More than 100 million tons of oil are shipped each day by tankers. About half the petroleum shipped is loaded in the Middle East and then shipped to Japan, the United States and Europe. Tankers bound to Japan are using the Strait of Malacca while tankers bound to Europe and the United States will either use the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope, pending the tanker's size and its specific the destination. International oil trade is often correlated with oil prices, as it is the case for the United States.

The world tanker fleet capacity (excluding tankers owned or chartered on long-term basis for military use by governments) was about 280 million deadweight tons in 2002. There are roughly 3,500 tankers available on the international oil transportation market. The cost of hiring a tanker is known as the charter rate. It varies according to the size and characteristics of the tanker, its origin, destination and the availability of ships, although larger ships are preferred due to the economies of scale they confer. About 435 VLCCs account for a third of the oil being carried. Transportation costs account for a small percentage of the total cost of gasoline at the pump. For instance, oil carried from the Middle East to the United States account for about 1 cent per liter at the pump. Transportation costs have conventionally accounted for between 5 to 10% of the added value of oil depending on the market being serviced. The growth in oil prices since 2000 makes the transport costs an even lower component of the total costs, sometimes lower than 5%. Demand for oil is thus not related (inelastic) to its transport costs.

Tanker flows have a high concentration level with different tanker size used for different routes, namely for issues of distance and port access constraints. Larger tanker ships have required the setting of offshore terminals and even the usage of tanker ships for storage. Tanker ships can also be used as semi-permanent storage tanks. In 1990, about 5% of the world's tanker capacity was being used for oil storage. There is thus a specialization of maritime oil transportation in terms of ship size according to markets. VLCCs are mainly used from the Middle East in high volumes (more than 2 million barrels per ship) and over long distances (Europe and Pacific Asia). Shorter journeys are generally serviced by smaller tanker ships such as from Latin America (Venezuela and Mexico) to the United States. Transport costs have a significant impact on market selection. For instance, three quarters of American oil imports are coming from the Atlantic Basin (including Western Africa) with journeys of less than 20 days. Accordingly, the great majority of Asian oil imports are coming from the Middle East, a 3 weeks journey with the halfway location of Singapore being one of the world's largest refining center. In addition, due to environmental and security considerations, single-hulled tankers are gradually phased out to be replaced by double-hulled tankers.