The Gravity Model

Author: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

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1. Formulation

The gravity model is the most common formulation of the spatial interaction method. It is named as such because it uses a similar formulation than Newton’s formulation of gravity. Accordingly, the attraction between two objects is proportional to their mass and inversely proportional to their respective distance. Consequently, the general formulation of spatial interactions can be adapted to reflect this basic assumption to form the elementary formulation of the gravity model:

• P_i and P_j : Importance of the location of origin and the location of destination.
• d_ij : Distance between the location of origin and then location of destination.
• k is a proportionality constant. Related to the rate of the event. For instance, if the same system of spatial interactions is considered, the value of k will be higher if interactions were considered for a year comparatively to the value of k for one week.

Thus, spatial interactions between locations i and j are proportional to their respective importance divided by their distance.

2. Extension

The gravity model can be extended to include several parameters:

• P, d and k refers to the variables previously discussed.
• β (beta) : A parameter of transport friction related to the efficiency of the transport system between two locations. This friction is rarely linear as the further the movement the greater the friction of distance. For instance, two locations services by a highway will have a lower beta index than if they were serviced by a road.
• λ (lambda) : Potential to generate movements (emissiveness). For movements of people, lambda is often related to an overall level of welfare. For instance, it is logical to infer that for retailing flows, a location having higher income levels will generate more movements.
• α (alpha) : Potential to attract movements (attractiveness). Related to the nature of economic activities at the destination. For instance, a center having important commercial activities will attract more movements.

3. Calibration

A significant challenge related to the usage of spatial interaction models, notably the gravity model, is related to their calibration. Calibration consists in finding the value of each parameters of the model (constant and exponents) to insure that the estimated results are similar to the observed flows. If it is not the case, the model is almost useless as it predicts or explains little. It is impossible to know if the process of calibration is accurate without comparing estimated results with empirical evidence.

In the two formulations of the gravity model that have been introduced, the simple formulation offers a good flexibility for calibration since four parameters can be modified. Altering the value of beta, alpha and lambda will influence the estimated spatial interactions. Furthermore, the value of the parameters can change in time due to factors such as technological innovations and economic development. For instance, improvements in transport efficiency generally have the consequence of reducing the value of the beta exponent (friction of distance). Economic development is likely to influence the values of alpha and lambda, reflecting a growth in the mobility.

Often, a value of 1 is given to the parameters, and then they are progressively altered until the estimated results are similar to observed results. Calibration can also be considered for different O/D matrices according to age, income, gender, type of merchandise and modal choice. A great part of the scientific research in transport and regional planning aims at finding accurate parameters for spatial interaction models. This is generally a costly and time consuming process, but a very useful one. Once a spatial interaction model has been validated for a city or a region, it can then be used for simulation and prediction purposes, such as how many additional flows would be generated if the population increased or if better transport infrastructures (lower friction of distance) were provided.