Source: WTO and World Bank.

World Merchandise Trade, 1960-2008

Global trade has grown both in absolute and relative terms, particularly after 1990 where global exports surged in the wake of rapid industrialization in developing countries, particularly China. The value of global exports first exceeded $US 1 trillion in 1977 and by 2008, more than 16 trillion current US dollars of merchandises were exported. During the same time period, the share of the world GDP accounted by merchandise trade, imports and exports combined, surged from 18% to 51%. This trend is correlated with a growth in international transportation.

The growth of exports is indicative of a diffusion cycle where globalization may have reached maturity, particularly in light of the acceleration phase that took place after 2001. This process cannot go on indefinitely as growth in trade was also accompanied by a surge in trade imbalances. It is likely that in the coming years that growth figures will slow down and international trade could even experience a setback as the global economy enters a recessionary phase.