Source: adapted from WTO, World Trade Report 2010. Share of merchandise exports.

Share of Product Groups in World Merchandise Trade, 1900-2008

Prior to the Second World War, international trade was dominated by agricultural goods and natural resources. Manufactured goods accounted for 40% of global merchandise exports while agricultural goods were dominant. While national markets tended to protected for imports of manufactured goods, commodities, particularly strategic ones (oil, grains, etc.), were less restricted. After the Second World War, manufactured products have taken a growing share of the value of international trade. While they accounted for 44.7% of all exports in 1955, this share climbed to 74.8% in 2000, with shares above 70% common throughout the 1990s. Several factors can be associated with this change, such as technology and the globalization of the economy. Technological innovations in the transport sector, namely containerization, have enabled a fast and efficient handling of manufactured goods, thus lowering transportation costs.

The globalization of production has also increased the trade of manufactured goods with a fragmentation of consumption and production functions. It is relatively common for a part to be traded several times if it is used for the assembly of a more complex product. The share of mineral and agricultural products in the global trade is likely to remain similar or even increase slightly as commodity prices increase due to higher demands and higher costs, particularly from developing countries. The rising price of oil and other commodities (or the debasement of major currencies) is likely to result in a higher share of mineral products in international trade. In a world where some resources may be scarcer a distinct possibility exists that the share of agricultural and mineral products would resume to its prior share, in the range of 40 to 50%.

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