World Container Traffic, 1980-2008 (millions of TEU)

From the early 1990s to the early 21st century, containerized traffic has tripled to above 500 million TEU. This surge is concomitantly linked with the growth of international trade in addition to the adoption of containerization as privileged vector for maritime shipping and inland transportation. So far, the growth of container traffic behaves according to the standard technological diffusion (logistics) curve, which is "S" shaped. The following development stages can be suggested and inferred:

• Introduction (1958-1970). From the first containerized commercial services in the late 1950s until the design of the first cellular containerships in the 1960s, the container was an unknown variable in global shipping. Investments were sparse as high risk was involved with an unproven technology.
• Adoption (1970-1990). The container became acknowledged as a transport product and investments in intermodal facilities accelerated. Construction and reconversion of several container port terminals as well as cellular containerships. The risk factor became less of an issue and investments were made in accordance to commercial opportunities.
• Growth (1990-2010?). Containerization began to seriously impact global trade patterns and manufacturing strategies, particularly with the entry of China in the global economy. The emergence of new manufacturing clusters incited long distance (transatlantic and transpacific) container services. During the same period, a new class of Post panamax containership became a dominant vector of maritime shipping. Additionally containerization started to go further inland with rail and barge services. It is unclear when the phase of fast growth in container traffic will reach a threshold, but 2010 appears to be a possibility.
• Maturity (2010?-). The maturation of container traffic will be linked with the maturation of the global economy. This can be linked to a number of factors such as limits to the exploitation of comparative advantages in manufacturing as well as the associated trade imbalances. Technical limits to economies of scale both from the maritime and land side of containerization are also likely to play significantly for containerized traffic.