
Source: adapted from Drewry Shipping Consultants.
World Container Traffic and Throughput, 1980-2008 (millions of TEU)
The world container throughput is the summation of all containers
handled by ports, either as imports, exports or transshipment. This
means that a container is at least counted twice; as an import and as
an export, but also each time it is handled at the ship-to-shore interface
(e.g. at an intermediary location). Thus throughput should ideally be
counted in container moves, but for basic commercial-strategic reasons,
both port authorities and terminal operators prefer to communicate throughput
figures in TEU. The world container traffic is the absolute number of
containers being carried by sea, excluding the double counts of imports
and exports as well as the number of involved transshipments. The throughput
reflects the level of transport activity while the traffic reflects
the level of trade activity. The trend underlines a divergence between
both as global supply chains became more complex.
Between 1990 and 2008, container traffic has grown from 28.7 million
TEU to 152.0 million TEU, an increase by about 430%. This corresponds
to an average annual compound growth of 9.5%. In the same period, container
throughput went from 88 million to 530 million TEU, an increase of 500%,
equivalent to an average annual compound growth of 10.5%. Consequently,
the ratio of container traffic over container throughput was around
3.5 in 2008, whereas this ratio stood at 3.0 in 1990. The surge of both
container traffic and throughput is linked with the growth of international
trade in addition to the adoption of containerization as privileged
vector for maritime shipping and inland transportation. So far, the
growth of container throughput behaves according to the standard technological
diffusion (or product life cycle) curve, which is "S" shaped. With this
in mind, the following development stages can be suggested and inferred:
- Introduction (1958-1970). From the first containerized
commercial services in the late 1950s until the design of the first
cellular containerships in the 1960s, the container was an unknown
variable in global shipping. Investments were sparse as high risk
was involved with an unproven technology.
- Adoption (1970-1990). The container became acknowledged
as a transport product and investments in intermodal facilities
accelerated. This involved the construction and reconversion of
several container port terminals as well as the introduction of
cellular containerships. The risk factor became less of an issue
and investments were made in accordance to commercial opportunities.
- Growth (1990-2008). Containerization began to seriously
impact global trade patterns and manufacturing strategies, particularly
with the entry of China in the global economy. The emergence of
new manufacturing clusters incited long distance (transatlantic
and transpacific) pendulum container services. During the same period,
a new class of Post panamax containership became a dominant vector
of maritime shipping. Additionally containerization started to go
further inland with rail and barge services. It is unclear when
the phase of fast growth in container traffic will reach a threshold,
but 2010 appears to be a possibility.
- Maturity (2008-). The maturation of container traffic
will be linked with the maturation of the global economy. This can
be linked to a number of factors such as limits to the exploitation
of comparative advantages in manufacturing as well as the associated
trade imbalances and higher energy prices. Technical limits to economies
of scale both from the maritime and land side of containerization
are also likely to play significantly for containerized traffic,
but the maturity of containerization is likely to be more an economic
than a technical process. Already, the global recession that began
in 2008 has been associated with a significant reduction in containerized
traffic.