Source: adapted from Drewry Shipping Consultants.

World Container Traffic and Throughput, 1980-2008 (millions of TEU)

Between 1990 and 2008, container traffic has grown from 28.7 million TEU to 152.0 million TEU, an increase of about 430%. This corresponds to an average annual compound growth of 9.5%. During the same period, container throughput went from 88 million to 530 million TEU, an increase of 500%, equivalent to an average annual compound growth of 10.5%. The trend underlines a divergence between throughput and traffic as global supply chains became more complex. Consequently, the ratio of container traffic over container throughput was around 3.5 in 2008, whereas this ratio stood at 3.0 in 1990. The surge of both container traffic and throughput is linked with the growth of international trade in addition to the adoption of containerization as privileged vector for maritime shipping and inland transportation. So far, the growth of container throughput behaves according to the standard technological diffusion (or product life cycle) curve, which is "S" shaped. With this in mind, the following development stages can be suggested and inferred:

• Introduction (1958-1970). From the first containerized commercial services in the late 1950s until the design of the first cellular containerships in the 1960s, the container was an unknown variable in global shipping. Investments were sparse as high risk was involved with an unproven technology.
• Adoption (1970-1990). The container became acknowledged as a transport product and investments in intermodal facilities accelerated. This involved the construction and reconversion of several container port terminals as well as the introduction of cellular containerships. The risk factor became less of an issue and investments were made in accordance to commercial opportunities.
• Growth (1990-2008). Containerization began to seriously impact global trade patterns and manufacturing strategies, particularly with the entry of China in the global economy. The emergence of new manufacturing clusters incited long distance (transatlantic and transpacific) pendulum container services. During the same period, a new class of Post panamax containership became a dominant vector of maritime shipping. Additionally containerization started to go further inland with rail and barge services. It is unclear when the phase of fast growth in container traffic will reach a threshold, but 2010 appears to be a possibility.
• Maturity (2008-). The maturation of container traffic will be linked with the maturation of the global economy. This can be linked to a number of factors such as limits to the exploitation of comparative advantages in manufacturing as well as the associated trade imbalances and higher energy prices. Technical limits to economies of scale both from the maritime and land side of containerization are also likely to play significantly for containerized traffic, but the maturity of containerization is likely to be more an economic than a technical process. Already, the global recession that began in 2008 has been associated with a significant reduction in containerized traffic.

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