Source: adapted from ICF International (2008), Long Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry, Final Future-focused Research Framework, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Project 20-80, Task 2.

Drivers of Change for Future Transportation

It is possible to place the major drivers that can change the nature and extent of transportation systems into six categories:

• Policy. The inherent scale and complexity of transportation systems, particularly when they span multiple jurisdictions, will require novel approaches in governance. The role and impact of government policy is commonly subject to cycles of increasing commitments followed by different forms of retrenchment (e.g. privatization). In spite of deregulation, the transportation is subject to many forms of regulations pertaining to safety, security and the environment. These regulations as well as the taxation of transport activities, add to the management complexity and the cost burden.
• Demography and society. Population growth is expected to endure in many parts of the world until the mid 21st century, a process which will be linked with demands in mobility. Yet, in other parts of the world, such and in Western Europe, North America and Japan, the rapid aging of the population and more people in retirement age will be associated with changes in mobility and lower levels of consumption per capita. Urbanization is expected to continue in many developing countries, underlining issue linked with the urban mobility of passengers and freight. It also remains to be seen how changes in work patterns, such as a greater share of the population in the service sector, will be reflected in mobility.
• Energy and environment. Issues related to the availability of energy and raw materials, particularly fossil fuels, are likely to endure and become more acute. A whole range of alternative fuels will be brought forward and transportation activities will increasingly be considered within a sustainability framework. Climate change is also an issue that may add to the sustainability of transport systems.
• Technology. Technological innovation and its impacts are very difficult processes to anticipate. It is however expected that information technologies are likely to transform mobility with an improved command of flows. Improvements in materials and engines are also highly possible with the expected benefits on modes and terminals, namely in terms of performance.
• Economics. Economic growth and global trade have been significant vectors for the growth of mobility. Yet this growth is subject to cycles of growth and recession and limits in credit based consumption. The level of activity and the structure of national economies, as well as their trade patterns, are important influence of national and global transport systems. Economic integration is likely to endure, which will favor more comprehensive and seamless regional transport systems. The relative price of transportation is also linked with the viability of several supply chains and the comparative advantages they extract value from. As transportation costs are expected to rise on the medium term, namely due to fossil fuels, transport demand, from commuting, air travel to global supply chains, will be readjusted accordingly.
• Finance. Transportation projects, due to their size and technological complexity, are getting increasingly capital intensive. In several cases, only the largest financial institutions, often in partnership with the public sector, can provide an adequate level of capitalisation. The value of transportation assets and the revenue they generate are likely to be important factors behind their financing.