Polar Shipping Routes

Global climate change hinting at a warming of global temperatures is offering new opportunities for international transportation networks, notably with a trend of receding ice around the North Pole. If this trend continues the Arctic could be used more reliably for navigation, at least during summer months. The Northwest Passage crossing Canada's Arctic Ocean could become usable on a regular basis by 2020, lessening maritime shipping distances substantially.

The maritime journey between East Asia and Western Europe would take about 13,600 km using the Northwest Passage, while taking 24,000 km using the Panama Canal. The Northern Sea route passing through the Russian Arctic could also become a possibility. It would reduce a maritime journey between East Asia and Western Europe from 21,000 km using the Suez Canal to 12,800 km, cutting transit time by 10-15 days. In addition, an Arctic Bridge could also be used, linking the Russian port of Murmansk or the Norwegian port of Narvik to the Canadian port of Churchill.

From Rotterdam to:

Yokohama: 20,600 km (Suez Canal); 8,500 km (Northeast Passage)

Shanghai: 19,300 km (Suez Canal); 14,875 km (Northeast Passage)

Vancouver: 16,400 km (Panama Canal); 12,850 km (Northeast Passage)

In 2007 the Northwest Passage was open during the summer months for the first time in recorded history, but it remains to be seen how stable this opening is. In 2009, two German ships, Beluga Fraternity and Beluga Foresight, completed the first commercial journey across the Northern Sea Route (or Northeast Passage) linking Busan to Rotterdam with several stopovers.

The consideration of arctic routes for commercial navigation purposes remains a very speculative endeavor, mainly for three reasons:

First, it is highly uncertain to what extent the receding perennial ice cover is a confirmed trend or simply part of a long term climatic cycle.
Second, there is very limited economic activity around the Arctic Circle, implying that shipping services crossing the Arctic have almost no opportunity to drop and pick-up cargo as they pass through. Thus, unlike other long distance commercial shipping routes there is limited revenue generation potential for shipping lines along the Arctic route, which forbids the emergence of transshipment hubs. This value proposition could improve if resources (oil and mining) around the Arctic are extracted in greater quantities.
The Arctic remains a frontier in terms of charting and building a navigation system, implying uncertainties and unreliability for navigation. This implies that substantial efforts have to be made to insure that navigation can take in place in a safe manner.

In view of all of the above maritime shipping companies are not yet considering seriously the commercial potential of the Arctic.